Somalia, Piracy and Instability to Continue
The Return of Sheik Hassan Dahir spells doom for Somalia
Apr 30, 2009 Tongkeh Joseph Fowale
Somalia left the recent UN-sponsored Brussels Conference $250 million richer. This was seen by many observers as the beginning of good things to come for the piracy-infested country. Another move which added to this mounting optimism was the return of opposition leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys from a two-year exile. This optimism is beginning to fade, however, as Mr. Aweys has sworn in public that Somalis will “fight with pirates, not against them.”
Somalia at a Crossroads: No end in sight for Piracy
In his article “Shifts in Somalia as exile returns,” Somalia-based BBC correspondent Mohamed Mohamed summarizes the fate of Somalia in two apparently simple but complex questions. “Can an alliance be formed which could lead to peace? Or will the two former colleagues be locked in violent struggle?” Mohamed seems to have an answer for his questions. “From here, opposition and conflict look the most likely outcome.”
Since his return from exile, Mr. Aweys has helped to erode all expectations of peace in Somalia. His first demand to his friend-turned-rival is the removal of all African Union (AU) forces from Somalia. “Let me make it clear,” the bellicose Aweys said, “we do not want any foreign troops on our land.” Mr. Aweys described the AU forces as “bacteria.” The recent attack on the Somali parliament building confirms Aweys’ message of doom.
Mr. Aweys’ alliance with radical Islamist groups like Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islam are indications that he is building up a disruptive coalition against Somalia’s new government. “Negotiating with Al-Shabab is certain to provoke the anger of the government because it has been waging war on President Ahmed’s administration,” says Mohamed.
President Sharif Ahmed’s new Offensive
The present government in Somalia is the 15th attempt to establish a functional government in 18 years. This dates back to 1991 when the dictator Said Barre was ousted by warlords. Mr. Ahmed’s new administration faces battle-tested and conflict-hardened enemies. He has therefore missed no opportunity to call international attention to the plight of his conflict-ridden country. In this search for assistance, he has recently made visits to Belgium, Turkey and Sudan. He also hinted at the possibility of dialogue with Aweys.
Containing Sheik Hassan Dahir
What are the implications of Mr. Aweys’ demand for the departure of AU forces from Somalia? This question brings back the situation in Somalia before the Ethiopian invasion of 2006 with western backing. Before this invasion, most of Somalia was ruled by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) headed by Ahmed and Aweys. Both men parted ways when Ahmed agreed to UN-sponsored talks that brought him to power in 2009. The departing Ethiopian troops were replaced by AU forces.
Mr. Aweys’ call for the departure of these forces is therefore a demand for the return to the pre – 2006 status quo, a situation that will inevitably work to the favor of the chaos-loving extremists. Added to this, he has challenged the legitimacy of Mr. Ahmed’s government. “Mr. Sharif’s government was not elected by the Somali people and it is not representing the interests of the Somali people,” he warned.
In Brussels, piracy was considered to be the top of Somalia’s worries. The utterances and moves of Mr. Aweys is an indication that peace is nowhere in sight. Isolating him or bringing him to the negotiating table are options that have to be considered especially given the popularity Aweys enjoys in Somalia. “… he is still considered to be the spiritual leader and of all Islamist groups and is seen by many as being the country’s real kingmaker,” says Mohamed.
Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys
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